Card chance to proc

[Wiki Hater 10]

Hi ! I just recently put atros card in my weap. And it doesnt activate that much. My question is if i choose to put another atros card will the chance of activating the 190 attspd will increase ? 

[Jailbroken 155]

Try putting baphomet card instead if im not mistaken, it adds the chance of procs by the number of mobs getting hit. A pro @Tainaka Ritsu mentioned it before about that.  

[Wiki Hater 10]

2 atros = 1 doppel in terms of price. Thats why i choose it for my battle priest. My weap is bapho atros luna kaleet. Im thinking if it worth it to put another atros. 

[NattWara 198]

I would rather go for 2 doppel, if you're on budget might as well go for 1 doppel, leave the other slot until you get the money.

it's more reliable.

But if you insist, then, Yes, the chance will increase, the base chance is 0.5% for 1 card (the script use autobonus 5,10000 = 0.5% for 10,000 millisec)

And with 2 card it become 1%, that, and hitting 10 mob = 10%

Your choice.

[DoucheEnrique 88]

13 hours ago, NattWara said:

...

And with 2 card it become 1%, that, and hitting 10 mob = 10%

...

This is not how probability works. Assuming 2 Atroce Cards really add up to 1% proc chance hitting 10 mobs would just be 10 consecutive rolls with 1% chance each which then should result in an overall proc chance of 9.57%

And now I'm pondering switching my Samurai Card to another Atroce  

Can anybody confirm that proc chance for autobonus script really adds up?

Edited January 19, 2018 by DoucheEnrique

[NattWara 198]

Ok, I agree with the 1% 10 rolls, it should be that.

And here's where I think the 2 card add up to 1% : https://wiki.talonro.com/Whitesmith_-_Vampire_Whitesmith_Guide

It's not entirely related to this topic, except the part about sniper card, it is also a proc-by-chance. And that 2 cards of the same % script would add up. Different scipt(modifier) will multiply. : https://wiki.talonro.com/Stacking_Of_Cards

Is there a place we can see the code about how % carding calculate? Or a statistical test (1, 2, 3 atroce cards / 1, 2 atroce cards + bapho card, hitting 1, 2, 3 target, with large sample size of data)

Edited January 20, 2018 by NattWara

[Tainaka Ritsu 548]

wew im not pruo @Jailbrokenser  

[DoucheEnrique 88]

Ok I finally did my test run to see if and how cards with autobonus-script stack. Turns out apparently they dont stack at all. 1, 2 or 3 cards of the same type should all give the same chance to proc.

What I did to test: I brought one of my chars to 190 ASPD, auto attacked another char in a duel, then counted the number of procs during a 90 seconds interval. I did this while wearing 1 and 2 Vanberk cards. To get a nice average I repeated each trial 22 times.

If proc chances added up like damage modifier cards the chance per hit would be exactly doubled. If the cards proced independently the chance per hit would not be exactly doubled but still very close to. Considering deviation in both cases the counted number of procs for 2 Vanberks should be around twice as high as for 1. In the end wearing 1 or 2 Vanberk Cards gave pretty much the same average amount of procs. So it appears autobonus-cards don't stack at all.

The raw numbers:

	n1	n2	n3	n4	n5	n6	n7	n8	n9	n10	n11	n12	n13	n14	n15	n16	n17	n18	n19	n20	n21	n22	average
1*Vanberk	5	2	2	1	1	3	1	1	3	2	4	3	4	2	4	2	2	4	1	3	2	1	2,40909090909091
2*Vanberk	3	0	4	4	2	1	4	2	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	4	5	4	3	3	1	5	2,59090909090909

To cross check: timing 90 seconds at 190 ASPD (5 hits/second) should give around 450 hits. Multiplying by 0.5% chance to proc per each hit gives a projected number of 2,25 procs.

Edited February 28, 2018 by DoucheEnrique

[Shendel 61]

1 hour ago, DoucheEnrique said:

Ok I finally did my test run to see if and how cards with autobonus-script stack. Turns out apparently they dont stack at all. 1, 2 or 3 cards of the same type should all give the same chance to proc.

Does this mean that 2 sniper cards don't stack? Guru will have a field day decarding the extra sniper card off of those vampsmith weapons. 

[DoucheEnrique 88]

5 minutes ago, Shendel said:

Does this mean that 2 sniper cards don't stack? Guru will have a field day decarding the extra sniper card off of those vampsmith weapons. 

No, Sniper card uses a completely different script. This only applies to cards (and gear) that uses the autobonus script. For cards that would be: Atros, Hodremlin, Ice Titan, Isilla and Vanberk.

[NattWara 198]

1 hour ago, DoucheEnrique said:

Ok I finally did my test run to see if and how cards with autobonus-script stack. Turns out apparently they dont stack at all. 1, 2 or 3 cards of the same type should all give the same chance to proc.

What I did to test: I brought one of my chars to 190 ASPD, auto attacked another char in a duel, then counted the number of procs during a 90 seconds interval. I did this while wearing 1 and 2 Vanberk cards. To get a nice average I repeated each trial 22 times.

If proc chances added up like damage modifier cards the chance per hit would be exactly doubled. If the cards proced independently the chance per hit would not be exactly doubled but still very close to. Considering deviation in both cases the counted number of procs for 2 Vanberks should be around twice as high as for 1. In the end wearing 1 or 2 Vanberk Cards gave pretty much the same average amount of procs. So it appears autobonus-cards don't stack at all.

The raw numbers:

	n1	n2	n3	n4	n5	n6	n7	n8	n9	n10	n11	n12	n13	n14	n15	n16	n17	n18	n19	n20	n21	n22	average
1*Vanberk	5	2	2	1	1	3	1	1	3	2	4	3	4	2	4	2	2	4	1	3	2	1	2,40909090909091
2*Vanberk	3	0	4	4	2	1	4	2	1	1	1	2	2	3	2	4	5	4	3	3	1	5	2,59090909090909

To cross check: timing 90 seconds at 190 ASPD (5 hits/second) should give around 450 hits. Multiplying by 0.5% chance to proc per each hit gives a projected number of 2,25 procs.

WOW! For the love of science! Thanks very much @DoucheEnrique

[Shendel 61]

11 minutes ago, DoucheEnrique said:

No, Sniper card uses a completely different script. This only applies to cards (and gear) that uses the autobonus script. For cards that would be: Atros, Hodremlin, Ice Titan, Isilla and Vanberk.

I see. So 2 vanberks won't stack? It would be more viable to just use myst case carded hats then. 

Or hats that make the monster drop something when they die. Preferably slotted so you can put myst case card in there. 

Edited February 28, 2018 by Shendel

[NattWara 198]

Also, if you wear 2 card, even with about same chance to proc. There's a chance they proc near each other, in that case the bonus get add up for the diration they overlap.

my vamp smith often get 200 crit with 2 vanberk for a few secs.

like

card 1 proc at 2 sec, card 2 at 4 sec

so at 0-2 sec +0 crit, 2-4 sec +100, 4-7 +200, 7-9 +100, 9-n +0 crit

but it's not like I need 200 anyway. So now with this evidence I can wear something else. 

Also there's a video made by the person who made the guide for non-IC wiz, he did get IC from 2 isilla on a rare chance. Most of the time it's 50% cast-time redux.

Edited February 28, 2018 by NattWara

[DoucheEnrique 88]

9 minutes ago, NattWara said:

Also, if you wear 2 card, even with about same chance to proc. There's a chance they proc near each other, in that case the bonus get add up for the diration they overlap.

my vamp smith often get 200 crit with 2 vanberk for a few secs.

like

card 1 proc at 2 sec, card 2 at 4 sec

so at 0-2 sec +0 crit, 2-4 sec +100, 4-7 +200, 7-9 +100, 9-n +0 crit

but it's not like I need 200 anyway. So now with this evidence I can wear something else. 

Also there's a video made by the person who made the guide for non-IC wiz, he did get IC from 2 isilla on a rare chance. Most of the time it's 50% cast-time redux.

Hm I didn't watch the crit rate while counting the procs so I don't know if something like that happened. It would be strange though. Getting double the effect would mean both cards had to proc and apply their bonus independently. But looking at the number of procs this does not seem to happen.

Maybe there is something completely different going on here.  

[howrah 1216]

I believe that with 2 cards, you will have 2 rolls - so if 1st doesnt proc, 2nd still may (it rolls for the same % though)

22 tests is nice, but it is not enough - look at the numbers - even with such low amount, you can see that with 2 cards, you have better numbers..

 

[DoucheEnrique 88]

1 minute ago, howrah said:

I believe that with 2 cards, you will have 2 rolls - so if 1st doesnt proc, 2nd still may (it rolls for the same % though)

22 tests is nice, but it is not enough - look at the numbers - even with such low amount, you can see that with 2 cards, you have better numbers..

 

No that's the whole point the difference between 1 and 2 cards is way too low to be anything else but deviation. If the cards proced independently you get a chance of 0.9975% that at least one of the cards procs. This is nearly double the 0.5% of a single card so the difference should be a lot more obvious if they proced independently.

[howrah 1216]

12 minutes ago, DoucheEnrique said:

No that's the whole point the difference between 1 and 2 cards is way too low to be anything else but deviation. If the cards proced independently you get a chance of 0.9975% that at least one of the cards procs. This is nearly double the 0.5% of a single card so the difference should be a lot more obvious if they proced independently.

I think that the chance is too low to show correct results in 22 tests.. make it 1K

seriously - one of the higher GMs may shed some light into this - I somehow dont believe that Lezark would "waste" a slot - thats why I tend to believe that the results where 1 wins over 2 is actually the deviation you mentioned - another thing that makes me believe so is what Natwara and you wrote about having 200 crit <- I think that it is exactly what it means - they will proc independently.. Yet another thing is personal experience, where I can remember using only 1 card when I started, because I had to make some money to get mid headgear with 2nd card - I do have a feeling that with 2 cards, I get crits on pretty much every mob, unlike with only 1 card -- however, thats just a feeling and can not be measured...

lets see what others will say about this issue  

 

Edit: I will be home alone today, so I will try it on my own and post my observations on Thursday..

Edited February 28, 2018 by howrah

[DoucheEnrique 88]

12 minutes ago, howrah said:

I think that the chance is too low to show correct results in 22 tests.. make it 1K

...

Well it wasn't just 22 single hits but 90 seconds of hitting at 190 ASPD. That's roughly a total of 10k hits for 1 and 2 cards respectively. I'd say that's enough to get to the right magnitudes at least.

Edited February 28, 2018 by DoucheEnrique

[howrah 1216]

sure - if you have 0,5%, it means 1 out of 200 - even I can understand, that out of 22 hits, you will not get that many numbers  

22 tests is not enough.. 

BUT I thought about it some more and I have a different doubt - can it proc more than once? because that way, you could achieve 200crit even with 1 card..

I should know this, because I spent over 5 years with isilla headgear, but I dont really remember..

anyways, my tests may show this   now I really wonder what it will show...

 

edit: OK, it wont proc twice no matter what (hmmm, I didnt test switching it once it procs..) so my observation:

-> If I wear only 1 card, I get only +100 crit - never +200, never +300... on few mobs, it did not proc at all

-> If I wear 2 cards, I get +200 a lot (about 90% of mobs), but never +300 or +400.. 

this alone should prove, that both cards can proc.. that +200 does not come from 1 card only.. thus that both are checked for..

If you want to make even more complicated, maybe the second card is accounted for only during the time, when the first one proc and is "turned off" (that it wont proc again for the duration of effect) and I have no idea how to test this, since I dont know which card is currently in effect.. (this could even explain, why you have lower % than expected..) but this sounds really strange even to me, so I would rather believe, that it is checked for all the time.. Or we need to wait for someone who knows for sure, or you have to run like 1k tests - thats insane amount of time, please, dont do it  

btw I think that I had once +200 from the very first hit (both cards proc on same hit), but I dont know if it means anything for our case and I am not really 100% sure, since 190 is difficult to follow...

now, I have another concern - how did you know, that it proc during your tests? because of crit bubles or you checked for the visual effect when it proc? you could have missed some, if they proc together, you have no way of knowing.. and you mentioned that you did not watch the crit rate, so you really could have missed some - maybe try just 5-10 of your test runs watching the crit rate and see if the results are different from your first tests.. otherwise, I dont know why you had the numbers you had - only that it was not enough tests

TLDR: I will keep wearing 2 vanberks

and of course, I did not run 1k tests..

Edited February 28, 2018 by howrah

[DoucheEnrique 88]

Time to necro this stuff

I finally got to redo my test series. Thinking about how I could make my results more reliable I simplified my test setup. I leveled my test candidate a little higher and got some other equipment to reach 190 ASPD without any buff except for zerk pot. Instead of attacking another char i just went to punch my new best friends: "soccer balls". Also I recorded the whole test run instead of counting on the go so I could concentrate on counting and make the test reviewable.

With a much more simple test setup I increased the runtime of the test to 8000s (2 hours 13 minutes 20 seconds) which, at 190 ASPD (5 hits per second), results in a total of 40000 single hits. (@howrah if you still want more hits you have to do it yourself )

The results are clear:

1 Vanberk Card	2 Vanberk Cards
189 procs -> 189 / 40000 * 100 = 0.4725%	360 procs -> 360 / 40000 * 100 = 0.9%

Some additional notes

I still can't say if autobonus script adds up or procs independently but it's strange the numbers are lower than expected.

An interesting observation was when wearing only 1 card I haven't seen a single occurance of +200crit while it was quite frequent when wearing 2 but even with wearing 2 cards there was no +300crit. Makes me wonder if a card can not proc again as long as its bonus is active. That could explain the lowered effective proc rates. Or it might as well just be coincidence / variation. Further studies are needed 

 

Final Note

I was thinking about doing some more visualization with that data beyond just calculating the proc rate but after spending several hours just for recording and rewatching I decided against it. If someone wants to do something here's my list of counted procs: http://valeria-is.strangled.net/autobonus_proctest.ods
Also I wanted to upload the raw recordings to youtube but apparently they don't want ~2 hour vidoes from anonymous accounts. 
If anyone wants to double check and recount message me and I will send you the videos. It's 2 files of around 400MB.

Edited January 16 by DoucheEnrique

[Ghaspar 135]

watching these two, @howrah & @DoucheEnrique doing their tests, while I grind my hours here doing this work with utmost boredom makes me wonder why the hell don't i have this luxurious time nowadays. irl is taking a toll on me.

by the way, if the crit rate did not stack, that alone explains a lot. only 1 card is activated at a time. at least this number is clearly visible in our stats. proc chance isn't. so, it's safe to say that with 2 vanberks you have a better chance of getting +100 crit bonus by having 2 rolls of independent proc chance activating just 1 card at a time. 

nice work!

[DoucheEnrique 88]

6 hours ago, Ghaspar said:

...

by the way, if the crit rate did not stack, that alone explains a lot. only 1 card is activated at a time. at least this number is clearly visible in our stats. proc chance isn't. so, it's safe to say that with 2 vanberks you have a better chance of getting +100 crit bonus by having 2 rolls of independent proc chance activating just 1 card at a time. 

nice work!

It could also mean that with only 1 card the chance to proc 2 times in 5 seconds is just too low to occur during 8000s and vice versa for 3 procs with 2 cards.

I already thought about how to verify this but for one way I would need to run my own server to test with more than 2 Vanberk cards or use Isilla card because the proc rate for Isilla is 10 times higher than Vanberk and the +30 FLEE will also be visible on status window. Running my own server for testing would only tell how it works on athena servers in general but as we know there are several mechanics that work slightly different on TRO and using Isilla would mean I have to keep casting spells for hours instead of just watching auto attack ... so probably it's not going to happen 

Edited January 18 by DoucheEnrique